Crude pogo sticks, polyester and other cannons: do you hit or not? The resumption of weaving is worr

As the saying goes, when the cannon is fired, the oil price is king! However, the subtle events between Russia and Ukraine have twists and turns, which makes the market anxious about the sound, and also makes the polyester market fluctuate abnormally.

Recently, the geopolitical conflict has resurfaced. The dispute between Russia and Ukraine once pushed crude oil to a high of US$100. However, the incident has been twists and turns. Recently, the tension in Ukraine has shown signs of easing, international crude oil futures prices fell, and 16 main crude oil contracts in the domestic commodity market closed down. 1.44%. On February 15, the Russian side claimed that some Russian troops had ended military exercises and began to return to bases from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Affected by the fall in crude oil prices, on Wednesday, domestic oil-based fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and aromatics-based PTA and staple fiber futures prices weakened. As of the close, the main 2205 contract of fuel oil futures fell 2.85%, the main 2205 contract of low-sulfur fuel oil futures fell 3.67%, the main 2205 contract of PTA futures fell 3.46%, and the main 2205 contract of staple fiber futures fell 2.92%.

"Compared with other energy and chemical varieties, oil-based varieties and aromatic hydrocarbon-based products are more affected by the cost side, so the reaction is more obvious." Ruan You, a researcher at Soochow Futures Research Institute, said. Dai Yifan, an energy chemical analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that the recent fluctuations of PTA and staple fiber are mainly affected by two factors: one is the trend of crude oil at the cost side, and the other is the resonance of the entire energy and chemical sector. Crude oil affects the cost of PTA, and PTA and ethylene glycol affect the cost of staple fiber. Under the influence of macro factors such as Russia and Ukraine's political disturbances and the unexpectedly higher-than-expected interest rate hike in the United States, the recent crude oil price trend has pulled back slightly and is still at a high level. If calculated based on the cost of crude oil, 1 US dollar/barrel of crude oil affects the PTA cost of 36 yuan/ton. Crude oil dropped by 5-6 US dollars/barrel, PTA dropped by 400 yuan/ton, and staple fiber dropped by 500 yuan/ton. In this wave of rises, PTA has increased by 24%, and staple fiber has increased by 17%. It is the variety that has risen more in the energy and chemical sector. At present, the price difference between PX and PTA has been repaired to 240 yuan / ton, and the processing fee of PTA is 500 yuan. about / ton, the profit of the overall industry chain has been repaired compared with before, and the valuation is at a neutral high position. Therefore, in the case of crude oil correction and overall chemical decline, PTA and staple fiber have more severe corrections.

With the correction of oil prices and polyester raw materials, the cost-side resistance was lost, and the continued growth of polyester filaments was insufficient, and local negotiations were loosened. On February 15, an outbreak occurred in Suzhou City, and the construction of Shengze Town, Wujiang District of the city, as a major textile town in China, was affected to a certain extent. At present, except for Suzhou, the resumption of work in other parts of Jiangsu has not been affected. However, many weaving companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reported that there were few domestic and overseas orders after the festival, and temporarily delivered pre-holiday orders or production inventory. , which made the wait-and-see mood of weaving enterprises aggravated. Enterprises that originally planned to resume work and production after the 15th of the first month mostly plan to postpone the resumption time.

In addition, most of the workers in weaving enterprises are migrant workers, and the time for workers to return to work is an important factor affecting the start of weaving. Longzhong's research has learned that most workers plan to return to work after the 15th of the first lunar month, and some local workers have been the first to return to work since the middle of the year. However, due to the shortage of workers, the operating rate of the weaving industry is still 3-40%, but in comparison, the weaving starts in many places during the Spring Festival holiday have been significantly higher than the same period last year. On the whole, on the one hand, due to the untimely return of workers, the resumption process is slow. On the other hand, terminal orders have not been placed in batches, demand is sluggish, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is not high. In the short term, weaving enterprises are cautious and slightly pessimistic about the market outlook. The sell-off sentiment is gradually heating up.

At present, the quotation of polyester filament is more stable, and there are signs of loosening in local discussions. After the festival, the inventory of enterprises is mostly around January, and the recent production and sales data are also more than 30% to 50%. The pressure on enterprise inventory will further increase. Large-scale resumption of production, polyester filament preferential space is expected to expand.