Source: China Trade News
The CMF Macroeconomic Monthly Data Analysis Conference was held online recently. Wang Xiaosong, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China and a major member of the China Macroeconomic Forum, released the CMF China Macroeconomic Monthly Data Analysis Report on behalf of the forum.
The report pointed out that the economic data in April showed that the downward pressure on my country's national economy has increased, which is due to the impact of the epidemic, shrinking foreign demand, and structural problems in economic development. More importantly, my country's current expectations are weakening. The first is that the industrial PMI continued to drop to 47.4%. The most serious decline in the composition index was the supplier's delivery time, which also reflected the imperfection of the logistics system. New orders, inventories, employees and other indicators in the PMI composition index are all below 48%. In addition, the high cost of raw materials increases the cost pressure of enterprises in the middle and downstream industries, and the new export order index also reflects that my country faces a greater export downside risk.
"The economic data in April reflects the many challenges my country's economic development is facing, but there are also bright spots." Wang Xiaosong said, on the one hand, in the economic data in April, with the overall added value of the manufacturing industry falling, the high-tech industries In addition, my country's utilization of foreign capital is relatively good. In the first four months, the actual utilization of foreign capital was 478.61 billion yuan, of which 185 were major projects. Although the overall situation of consumption is not good, online retail sales have remained relatively healthy. process status.
Regarding the future economic trend of China, Mao Zhenhua, co-director and professor of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, co-chairman of the China Macroeconomic Forum and chairman of China Chengxin Group, said that my country's economic situation in the first half of this year is relatively severe, and the gap in the first half of the year will require the second half of the year. Whether it can be achieved quickly depends on the following factors: first, the evolution of the epidemic and the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the economy; second, the impact of external factors, especially exports; third, the expectations of policy strength, my country's policy strength and development The strength point will affect the domestic market expectations and future economic trends; the fourth is the trend of the real estate market. The trend of the real estate market is related to my country's economic atmosphere and investment and consumption market, and will have a greater impact on my country's future economic trends.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and dean of the research institute, pointed out that my country's economy is expected to return to a growth rate of about 5% in the third and fourth quarters, but it is still difficult to achieve the annual growth target. Special treasury bonds of around 2 trillion yuan should be issued as soon as possible or the deficit should be raised as soon as possible.
The report pointed out that the overall positive trend of my country's economy has not changed. In the future, it is necessary to further coordinate economic development and epidemic prevention and control, grasp both internal and external factors, and make a comprehensive layout in the short, medium and long term to promote the high-quality development of my country's economy:
In the short term, we must play the role of investment. It is necessary to pay attention to investment in infrastructure and people's livelihood to make up for shortcomings, to play an active role in major project investment, to make good use of government special bonds, and to give full play to the government's guiding and leading role.
In the medium term, it is necessary to optimize the layout and maintain the stability of the supply chain. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase investment in basic research and development to enhance technological innovation capabilities; In addition, it is necessary to maintain economic and trade ties with major trading partners, so as to promote mutual promotion at home and abroad. And we must actively guide the domestic transfer of industries, and make good use of the resource advantages of the central and western regions.
In the long run, we must pay attention to the leading role of consumption and vigorously enhance the consumption capacity of residents. It is necessary to effectively expand the size of the middle-income group, improve the income level of the low-income people, reduce the burden on residents' housing, medical care, pension, education, etc., and stabilize residents' income growth expectations. Steady growth is the foundation and premise of stabilizing expectations. To stabilize growth, it is necessary to do a good job in the recovery of production and logistics on the basis of anti-epidemic, and strengthen the stability and synergy of policies. In the long run, it is necessary to continue to promote the reform of the factor market, promote fair distribution, and adhere to the principle of competitive neutrality, continue to stimulate the vitality of market players, and promote the steady growth of my country's economy.
